Chatham County softball playoff outlook

Potential seeds, fates for county teams in the state tournament

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With the county’s heavy hitters firmly establishing themselves in the state playoff picture, postseason softball will go through Chatham County this spring.

As the Mid-Carolina 1A/2A and Central Tar Heel 1A conference tournaments play out this week, Chatham Central, Jordan-Matthews and Chatham Charter will compete to improve or maintain their potentially high playoff seeding, while Seaforth and Northwood will fight for a spot in the state tournament.

Although the conference tournaments won’t be completed until the end of the week, the NCHSAA’s RPI standings can help determine what teams can still make the state tournament and where the automatic qualifiers can be seeded. RPI, or ratings percentage index, considers the winning percentage of a team, its opponents and its opponents’ opponents when determining a team’s seeding. 

Before the state playoffs start on May 7, here’s a playoff outlook for Chatham County’s softball teams based on the RPI standings updated Monday night:

Chatham Central (1A East, automatic bid)

Conference record/finish: 12-2, First place (Mid-Carolina 1A/2A)

RPI: 0.594458

Projected seed: 7

Chatham Central doesn’t play like a team with a bullpen of three freshmen. With the support of a talented, veteran defense behind them, the Bears have been a force this year, beating just about whoever gets in their way. Coming in at or near the seven seed in the 1A tournament, Chatham Central may begin to see some tough competition by the third round, but going 3-1 against non-conference opponents with winning records indicates the Bears will be ready to battle anybody.

Jordan-Matthews (2A East, automatic bid)

Conference record/finish: 12-2, Second place (Mid-Carolina 1A/2A)

RPI: 0.597862

Projected seed: 6

Jordan-Matthews is another team that has shown that it can beat anybody in any fashion, whether it’s by blowout or in extra innings. Looking at possibly being a six seed in the state tournament, it’s a promising sign that the Jets usually dominate inferior opponents, meaning it’s likely they’ll be playing more than just one or two extra games. Jordan-Matthews has also beaten really good teams, even on the 4A level, helping the Jets be a tougher opponent to rattle in the later rounds.

Chatham Charter (1A East, automatic bid)

Conference record/finish: 8-1, First place (Central Tar Heel 1A)

RPI: 0.551998

Projected seed: 8

After a second straight conference title, Chatham Charter will look to be a higher seed in the 1A tournament with the first place automatic bids getting seeded first. A potential eight seed won’t hurt the Knights who played relatively light competition in their schedule. Chatham Charter did pick up some good wins in non-conference play, yet the heavy hitters at the top of the bracket may give the Knights a tough challenge should they go on a deep run.

Seaforth (2A East)

Conference record/finish: 5-9, Sixth place (Mid-Carolina 1A/2A)

RPI: 0.440740

Projected seed: 35 (not in playoff contention)

Northwood (2A East)

Conference record/finish: 4-11, Seventh place (Mid-Carolina 1A/2A)

RPI: 0.436519

Projected seed: 36 (not in playoff contention)

Seaforth and Northwood sit just outside of the state playoff picture, and with both losing their first round games in the conference tournament, it’s unlikely that either of them climb into one of the last spots.